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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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