Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
